Reducing such uses (and possibly accepting a cost in other ecosystem services, such as provisioning) might help compensate for the negative impacts of climate change on marine biota (e.g. In addition, the consequences of climate change may be compounded by fishing or other human uses. This can further alter the various services an ecosystem provides for people, potentially motivating the re-assessment of tradeoffs between these services. The impacts of climate change can propagate through food webs as changes affecting one species also influence its competitors, predators, and prey. Marine ecosystems provide important provisioning, regulatory and cultural services, but climate change may threaten their sustainable delivery (e.g., ). This funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, or preparation of the manuscript, Publication under peer review was a requirement of this funding source, although the funder had no say in where this manuscript would be submitted.Ĭompeting interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. 2012).įunding: This work was supported by funding from the Pew Charitable Trusts, contract ID #29068. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.ĭata Availability: All relevant data are within the paper, its Supporting Information files, or relevant and cited papers available in the published literature (i.e. This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. Received: JAccepted: DecemPublished: January 31, 2018 Patterson, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, AUSTRALIA This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.Ĭitation: Klein ES, Hill SL, Hinke JT, Phillips T, Watters GM (2018) Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. These results varied by location and species group. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. ![]() The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21 st century. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota.
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